Any match where a single goal would have changed the final outcome probably has a larger than average luck factor. All draws are quite lucky in this sense. Of course it could be the case that a draw had very little luck involved. Or that a team won 1-0 and never got into any danger. Nevertheless, most of the time luck plays a major part in draws and wins with only a single goal difference.

What that means is that any analysis of that match had to take into account the luck factor. In fact, the analysis has to explain which parts of the match are due to the quality of players, the training program, strategies and tactics on the one hand and luck on the other hand. And that is quite a difficult job. So for all practical purposes analyses of draws and wins with only a single goal difference, are quite limited. In those games, most of the time, in these matches there is too much happenstance.

To make things even worse, is that one also have to take lucky goals into account. Goals that are scored because of a defender touching the ball, can hardly be said to be the result of the strategy and tactics of the scoring team.

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